We help you better estimate company value by predicting future customer behavior – acquisition, churn, spending
Traditional corporate valuation methods often miss key customer-driven leading indicators of company value, which limits their accuracy
These methods are often:
Not focused on modeling the customer-related activity which generates companies' revenue
Backward-looking, extrapolating off of historical financials
Less diagnostic for growing companies with negative cash flows
We incorporate predictions of customer behavior directly into the company valuation, leading to better accuracy and deeper insights
Customer-Based Corporate Valuation services are:
Focused on the underlying customer behaviors and their impact on company value
Forward-looking – we predict future customer value and its impact on future financials
Well-suited for growing companies with negative cash flows
Gain a competitive edge in bidding by better understanding target's unit economics, more accurately estimating its value, and identifying levers to improve value of revenue streams
Improve valuations of current portfolio companies by regularly assessing and improving customer value
Maximize return on investment when exiting a company by identifying sources of company value ignored by traditional valuation methods
Better understand health of your customer base and customers’ relationship to overall company valuation
Get more favorable investment / M&A terms by having a data-driven view of your firm's value which incorporates sources of value ignored by other valuation methods
Showcase full company value to outside investors by strategically disclosing key customer metrics directly linked to company valuation
Better estimate investments’ value and gain deeper insights into unit economics using publicly available data (SEC filings, presentations, etc.)
Always have an up-to-date forward-looking view of portfolio investments
Provide a more insightful picture of company unit economics and set more accurate target prices in analyst reports and recommendations
Theta Equity Partners' approach is based on many years of research in customer value and corporate valuation
Read our latest Harvard Business Review article on How to Value a Company by Analyzing Its Customers and check out an interactive visual on how to calculate customer value (developed in collaboration with Bain and Company):
We analyzed multiple public companies to gain deeper insight into their customer behavior and better estimate their true underlying value, for example:
Key insights: solid unit economics drive a $1.7-2B fair valuation with more upside potential
Read pre-IPO analysis
Key insights: constructive unit economics, but not enough to justify valuation
Key insights: very attractive unit economics but long payback period
Key insights: low repeat purchasing, losing money on average customer, overvalued stock price
Read academic paper and
Key insights: good customer profitability and stable CAC, but high margin volatility and valuation uncertainty
Key insights: low customer retention and declining spend, losing money on most customers, overvalued IPO price
Customer-Based Corporate Valuation work is recognized by a leading corporate valuation expert and covered by reputable business and academic publications:
Meet The Team
Pete is a Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, author of the "Customer Centricity" book, and a winner of many prestigious research and teaching awards.
His expertise centers around the analysis of behavioral data to understand and forecast customer shopping/purchasing activities. He is a co-creator of the CBCV methodology.
Together with Dan McCarthy, he co-founded Zodiac, a predictive customer analytics firm, before it was acquired by Nike.
Dan is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School.
He is a co-creator of the CBCV methodology. His CBCV work won a number of prestigious academic awards, including the MSI Alden G. Clayton, American Statistical Association, INFORMS, and Shankar-Spiegel dissertation awards
He holds a PhD in Statistics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
Prior to joining Theta Equity Partners, Val was a consultant and expert at McKinsey & Co, where he worked on a wide variety of topics, including customer lifecycle management, finance, PE due diligence, and advanced analytics.
He graduated with honors from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with an MBA degree and holds a MSc degree in Math.
Data Science and Engineering
Prior to joining Theta Equity Partners, Nickhil developed high-frequency trading strategies and execution systems on the ETF market making team at Citadel Securities.
He completed his undergraduate studies at Penn M&T, where he graduated summa cum laude with dual degrees from Wharton and Penn Engineering.
Director of Business Development
Prior to joining Theta Equity Partners, Joshua was a partner in a private equity firm, advisor to multiple firms and consultant at McKinsey & Co.
He holds an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and BA from Emory University.